The U.S. auto industry faces sobering new math: Some one million prospective buyers have defected from the new-car market since the start of the decade. They aren’t expected back soon.

Until recently, auto executives, analysts and economists believed that U.S. new-car sales were on a steady climb back to volumes last seen before the pandemic closed factories and scrambled global supply chains.

That’s no longer the case. GM, Ford, Toyota and other automakers have said they are planning for sales of new cars to shrink or stagnate this year.

This comes after consumers, stung by persistent inflation, rising fuel prices and high interest rates, are baulking at prices that have risen to around $50,000 on average.

Executives at the world’s biggest automakers say they recognize that a new car is out of reach for more Americans. Some have promised to bring out more affordable models. But no one predicts significant relief soon.

Historically, stagnating sales led automakers to juice demand by rolling out deals and incentives that eroded their profit margins.

That isn’t the case this time, particularly as America’s automaking giants, GM and Ford, are making solid profits selling fewer vehicles.

Buyers are left with few options. They could turn to used cars, but those are similarly climbing in price. Many choose to keep their old cars running longer. The average car on U.S. roads is now about 13 years old, a historic high, according to S&P Global.

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