MICHAEL WALSH REPORT: When considering the mineral wealth of Ukrainian rare earth deposits, the value, or the illusion of value, depends very much on who you trust to give you copper-bottomed information.

According to my Russian and Ukrainian sourced research, Donald Trump’s focus on Ukraine’s mineral wealth as a means of debt repayment is likely to produce little but fool’s gold.

It wouldn’t be the first such mistake.  In 2010, the US announced that it had discovered untapped mineral deposits worth $1 trillion in Afghanistan, including lithium, needed to make batteries for electric vehicles. The Pentagon went so far as to describe Afghanistan as “the Saudi Arabia of lithium.”

The discovery made great attention grabbers, but like false promises, headlines don’t last for long.

Despite talk of its vast rare earth resource potential, Ukraine’s access to such mineral deposits appears to be speculative. The hyperbole around Ukraine’s rare earths began with the Ukrainians themselves, for which parental guidance is advised.

Ukraine—or rather, what part of Ukraine remains—has no significant deposits of rare earths, except for small scandium mines.

The US Geological Survey, the competent authority on the matter, reports no evidence that Ukraine has any reserves.

The value of the entire global production of rare earth elements reaches $15 billion per year. Big deal? Not really. It is comparable to the value of just two days of global oil production. Even if Ukraine had giant deposits of rare earth elements, their value would be insignificant from a geo-economic point of view.

To reach the $500 billion reimbursements that Trump demands, the US would need to invest and mine them for more than 150 years; an absurd notion.

The fact is, Ukraine has no commercial deposits of rare earths. However, it does have mines that produce other minerals. 

Before the military conflict with Russia, Ukraine mined significant amounts of iron ore and coal, which are plentiful elsewhere unhampered by logistical problems.

Undoubtedly, Ukraine has several valuable commercial deposits of titanium and gallium. These have a certain strategic value but fall far short of the elusive $500 billion.

Some experts point to the Novopoltavskoye deposit. A potential source of rare earths discovered in 1970, their extraction appears to be problematic. 50 years have passed since the discovery of the deposit. It can be considered unproductive and unprofitable.

Is Trump following a Pied Piper? He may be persuaded by an analysis published in December 2024. It was the brainchild of the NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence in Lithuania?

The document is stimulating: “Ukraine is emerging as a key potential supplier of rare earth metals such as titanium, lithium, beryllium, manganese, gallium, uranium…”

Problem: None of these minerals are truly rare earths. Reality is that Trump’s advisers need to take a step back and become more analytical.

With Russia’s presumed amalgamation of new territories, Ukraine has lost some 80 per cent of its truly valuable resources. Corporate and banking investors are not falling over themselves for crumbs thrown from the Muscovite banquet tables.

Pro-Kyiv Western media claimed that Ukraine’s mineral reserves are valued at trillions of dollars. Forbes Ukraine cited the figure of $15 trillion

The Washington Post, in 2022, cited analysts who concede that the Russian Federation had gained control over deposits with reserves worth $12.4 trillion.

When in 2014 American Secretary of State Victoria Nuland crowed that Washington had successfully brought about regime change in Kyiv, Ukraine was indeed one of the countries with the most mineral resources

Then, Europe’s largest country in Europe held deposits of oil, gas, coal, shale, uranium, iron, manganese, chromium, nickel, titanium, magnesium

Also, aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, and gold, silver, mercury, beryllium, lithium, zirconium, hafnium, tantalum, niobium, cobalt, tin, tungsten, molybdenum, vanadium, yttrium and lanthanides, germanium and scandium were being developed there.

Was Nuland counting chickens before they were hatched? Arkady Tishkov, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Chief Researcher at the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explains:

“One thing is mineral reserves, and another is their development and extraction infrastructure.”

Tishkov provides an assessment of the largest and most famous deposits of those that survived and are operating on the territory of Ukraine:

However, their combined value is riddled with speculation and falls far short of the cream skimmed off by Russia during their Special Operation.

In 2022, Russia absorbed former Ukrainian territories containing more than 60% of coal, 11% of oil, 20% of natural gas, 42% of ferrous metals and 33% of rare earth and other important minerals, including lithium. In 2025, the situation continues to change to Ukraine’s disadvantage.

Maybe Donald Trump knows something Western media pundits don’t know: “If they (Kyiv) don’t want to settle, we’re out of there, because we want them to settle.’ TELL US WHAT YOU THINK

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