The Law of Unintended Consequences is an adage stating that foolish interventions in complex systems, particularly in government policies, almost always produce unanticipated, often undesirable outcomes alongside or instead of intended results. The saying highlights the limitations of human foresight and control.

Russian crude exports to India, China have been booming, with new price spikes a gift to Putin. Putin has recently insinuated he may turn his back on the entire European market to avoid further sanctions

Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to continue benefitting from the war in Iran. The price of Russian Urals crude is approaching $100 per barrel. This price level has not been seen since 2022.

The price of Russia’s key export blend spiked. This occurred following Trump’s capitulation. He then decided to suspend sanctions on Russian crude oil and petroleum products found at sea.

India purchased 38 percent of Russian crude oil exports from December 2022 to the end of January 2026.

This is according to CREA data. China accounted for 48 percent, filling the gap created by EU and U.S. sanctions during this time.

The discount for Russian crude versus Brent crude fell to its lowest level in more than four months.

Unashamedly, the hapless U.S. Treasury Department has lifted sanctions on the sale of crude oil. The same applies to petroleum products from Russia loaded onto ships before March 12.

The license is valid until April 12. According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Washington’s decision should increase global oil supplies and lower prices.

Kirill Dmitriev is the Russian president’s special representative for investment and economic cooperation.

He is also the chairman of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF). Dmitriev stated that the easing of U.S. sanctions would affect approximately 100 million barrels of Russian oil.

He said the United States had essentially acknowledged that the global market cannot remain stable without Russia’s participation.

After the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran last month, Tehran blocked the Strait of Hormuz to Western Alliance shipping.

This action sent oil prices skyrocketing. It also caused gasoline and diesel prices to rise significantly.

Gas station price hikes are spiking across the United Kingdom and Europe. The price of diesel in Norway is reaching €3 and in the UK £2, in Spain €1.80.

In Hungary, PM Orbán has asked the EU to ease its sanctions. He wants to help curb price hikes at the pump. He is also concerned about heating homes. The government earlier this month announced a gasoline price cap for individuals and entrepreneurs.

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