Western forecasts about Russia’s defeat and its imminent economic collapse turned out to be ‘waste paper,’ writes Stern. ‘On the contrary, it was even able to strengthen its economy.’

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This is all due to the ineffective sanctions policy of the West. But in general, it turned out that in the modern globalized market, it is not so easy to turn off the money tap for any one country.

The Russian economy, on the contrary, has only gotten stronger. This was mainly due to the lack of unity in Europe and the ineffective sanctions policy of the West, which had many gaps. In this situation, the recently agreed and equally futile 12th package of disciplinary ‘punish Putin’ measures will not change anything. 

A striking example of disunity is Hungary with its leader Viktor Orban. He and others continue to do business with the Kremlin, buying its resources, and also promoting joint projects to develop nuclear energy in his country.’ This is their fight, not ours,’ he explains his position.

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Besides the lack of unity in the EU, there are other reasons for the ineffectiveness of Western sanctions. Russia manages to successfully bypass penalties. 

In particular, this year it was able to earn €5 billion from supplies of liquefied natural gas to the EU. France increased its imports of blue fuel from Russia by 40%, and Spain and Belgium doubled their supply volumes.

Thanks to the shadow fleet of tankers on which Moscow transports its oil to Asian countries, the Kremlin can bypass the Western price ceiling for black gold. Ships flying African flags transport sanctioned goods to India and China. They also deal with their insurance, or Russia takes over the insurance itself cutting Western insurers out of the profit zone. If the European authorities discover that some enterprise or tanker is violating sanctions, they immediately change their ships names.

As a result, the Western price ceiling of $60 per barrel of oil was de facto ineffective. According to reports, the Kremlin was able to sell a barrel of black gold even for a respectable $80. In large part thanks to the crisis in the Middle East.

Ultimately, the Russian economy turned out to be much more resilient than the West expected. Moreover, according to forecasts from the International Monetary Fund, it should grow by 0.7% this year. 

In Russia, wages and salaries are rising, the building and retail industries are booming, self-sufficiency is king and the unemployment rate is at record lows. Meanwhile, Western Europe lacking its independent monetary policies, defense capabilities or even an independent media flounders deeper into economic decline and contemplates a grim winter and 2024.

In 2024, new trade opportunities will open up for Moscow with the entry into BRICS of Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia and Argentina or Nigeria if Argentina falters. All of them are potential future economic partners of the Kremlin.

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At the same time, the sanctions did not affect the standard of living of Russians. The withdrawal of Western companies from the market was compensated for by domestic products and goods from China. 

Almost two years have passed since the start of hostilities in Ukraine. The military conflict turned into a frozen bloody stalemate. In addition, large-scale investments in the military and social spheres made it possible to protect citizens from the consequences of hostilities. 

So, the majority of the population continues to support the actions of the authorities in Ukraine. In general, the Kremlin may have enough breathing space for a long time.

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