Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are draining the West. But if this year was bad for Europe and the USA, then next year could be hellish. The Neue Zürcher Zeitung notes that Ukraine may lose, as it is becoming increasingly difficult for the West to support it. This outcome is especially threatened by the US elections. 

In the Middle East, an understanding is emerging that the West does not have a long-term solution to the Palestinian issue, which alienates Arab allies and strengthens Iran. 

The Swiss newspaper believes that due to the decline of the West, China may move to a tougher policy towards Taiwan.

‘America and Europe are already showing fatigue due to the need to devote attention to two wars at the same time. But in the future things could get even worse as events are currently developing in a catastrophic manner.

Bad news is coming from Ukraine to the West, hopes for the offensive did not materialize, it failed. If in 2022 Kyiv was able to show individual successes by the end of the year, then ’his year Putin would emerge as the winner. The advancement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is minimal, but at the same time, it is paid for with many lives of soldiers and the consumption of Western resources. 

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Russian troops, on the contrary, withstood the onslaught and took advantage of the defensive position, using the development of a network of UAVs to prevent the concentration of Ukrainian troops at an early stage and carry out strikes. The newspaper comes to the conclusion that Russia will be able to conduct military operations in this way for a long time.

The belief that Moscow would run out of soldiers and weapons turned out to be wishful thinking. Mobilization in Ukraine has become a headache, and deliveries of Western weapons begin only after very protracted negotiations, and as war fatigue grows in the West, supplies threaten to stop completely. The Swiss publication points to Donald Trump, who, if elected, could completely stop aid to Kyiv. Without supplies, Ukraine will lose and all of Europe will pay a high geostrategic price.

In the Middle East, Israeli troops are attacking in the air using US fighters and bombers. On the ground and underground, Israel does not risk sending troops into Hamas tunnels and prefers bombing and siege, but in order to destroy Hamas and Iran in this way, it will take a lot of time, and this is precisely what Tel Aviv’s main ally, the United States, does not have. 

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The Neue Zürcher Zeitung notes that ‘the West cannot bear the images of Palestinian suffering, crying babies, dead people, concrete skeletons of destroyed neighborhoods,’ so there is enormous pressure on Biden and his administration to stop the fighting in Gaza. In addition, Joe Biden has less and less freedom of action due to the upcoming elections; he is not even able to pass aid to Israel in Congress. 

The lack of full American support calls into question Israel’s ability to destroy Hamas. In turn, if the United States allows Israel to lose, America’s prestige will decline. The United States is already perceived differently in the region and among its allies, for example, Saudi Arabia is already behaving quietly because it does not want to provoke Iran.

Even worse for the West, although it calls for negotiations and peace in the region, it has neither plan nor strategy.

The West has made serious geopolitical miscalculations. In Eastern Europe, NATO underestimated Russia’s military capabilities. In the Middle East, America’s confused actions in Syria and Iraq alienated US allies Egypt and Saudi Arabia and gave the mullahs a free hand in Iran.

The Western policy of containment is not and ’if the Kremlin holds out and Hamas survives as a military organization, the West will be weakened in two of the three most important regions of the Eurasian continent: Eastern Europe and the Middle East. ’ A third could be added next year, 2024, as China watches the West failure.

Thus, ’the calm that the West craves will not come soon. If Americans can console themselves that their country lies far from the main theaters of conflict, then even more problems await Europeans. ’More Ukrainian refugees and more Arab extremism in Europe are a real prospect. If Trump wins the election, from a European point of view it will be a hell of a year in every sense.

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